Growth cuts, job losses, 'dumbest trade war': Trump's tariffs impact in data and quotes

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters next to Air Force One after arriving back at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., February 2, 2025. /VCG

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday imposing a 25-percent additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10-percent tariff hike on imports from China, effective February 4.

In retaliation, Canada announced it will impose a 25-percent levy on C$30 billion ($21 billion) worth of American goods starting Tuesday, with an additional levy on C$125 billion worth of goods in 21 days. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has vowed to implement both tariff and non-tariff measures to protect Mexico's interests. Meanwhile, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Commerce, and Ministry of Public Security have strongly opposed the U.S. tariffs under the pretext of fentanyl-related issues. China has stated it will file a complaint with the WTO and take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests.

The latest U.S. trade protectionist measure has sparked widespread opposition, with analysts warning that the sweeping tariffs and subsequent retaliatory actions could fuel inflation, drive up consumer prices, cause job losses in the United States, and disrupt global economic activity.

CGTN has compiled the possible impact Trump's tariffs could have in numbers and quotes.

GDP cuts, higher prices and job losses in numbers

A report issued on January 31 by the Tax Foundation, a U.S. think tank, projects that Trump's tariffs – 25 percent on Canada and Mexico, and 10 percent on China – would shrink U.S. GDP growth by 0.4 percent and increase taxes by $1.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034, translating to an average tax hike of more than $830 per U.S. household in 2025.

EY Chief Economist Greg Daco's economic model predicts that Trump's tariff plan would reduce U.S. economic growth by 1.5 percentage points this year, push Canada and Mexico into recession, and usher in "stagflation" in the U.S., according to Reuters.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has warned that the imposition of 25-percent tariffs and full retaliation could lead to a 2.6-percent decline in Canada's real GDP, costing an average of C$1,900 per household annually. In the United States, GDP would fall by 1.6 percent, costing an average of $1,300 per household.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has previously stated that Trump's tariffs could cost 400,000 U.S. jobs and drive up consumer prices for the U.S. consumers.

In mid-January, the World Bank cautioned that a broad 10-percent tariff hike by the U.S. could reduce already lackluster global economic growth – projected at 2.7 percent for 2025 – by 0.3 percentage points if America's trading partners retaliate.

A January 2021 study by the U.S.-China Business Council revealed that trade policies during Trump's first term resulted in the loss of 245,000 American jobs.